ICT Playbook

01Summary

Learning path

A suggested study sequence built from the cited lessons. The drills and readiness criteria below are editorial exercises; they are not a quoted course or a profitability test.

02Ground rules

• Direction and destination before entry. Be precise about the directional bias and where price is reaching for; entries can be forgiving. 20220119 24:20 20220122 13:01
• A raid alone is not a trade. Don't short just because a high was exceeded; the short-term low must break with an energetic move. Until it does, "no trade, no setup". 20220122 27:55 20220506 32:23
• No setup is guaranteed. He says the FVG is where a trade might form and rejects "this can't fail" language; the only guarantee he gives is that over-leverage and over-trading blow accounts. 20220506 21:24
• No live money while learning. "None of you should be trading with live funds with this." Study, backtest and demo first. 20220511a 01:31 20220226 02:20
• When the model doesn't appear, there's no trade. A sell-off without his setup, followed by the real move the other way, is part of the lesson. 20220517a 07:42
• One setup. He stripped the 2022 model down so a complete beginner (his daughter) could learn it, and tells students to pick one pattern with his time-and-price ideas and submit to it. 20220511a 55:21 20220511a 52:22

03The 2022 model, step by step

The novice route, as he teaches it across the series. The diagram above steps through it. Exceptions he also allows are in "Variants and exceptions"; keep them separate.

1. Frame the draw on liquidity. From the weekly/daily chart: which old highs/lows or imbalances is price likely to reach? Expect the week to expand toward a draw, not to predict its close. 20220122 13:01 20220122 16:35 20220827b 14:04
2. Map nearby liquidity before the session. Before 08:30 ET mark the 15-minute highs and lows that matter; relative equal highs/lows and the true outer extreme can outrank an inside swing. 20220202 07:00 20220202 14:18
3. Wait for the raid in the window. For a short: price runs above old / relative equal highs (buy stops). Index morning observation is generally 08:30–11:00 ET. 20220122 22:35 20220406 10:40
4. Displacement and market structure shift. Pan back through the leg that made the raid and find the nearest short-term low; its break with an energetic move is the trigger. A slow drift or a wick that snaps back is not displacement. 20220506 32:23 20220202 18:12 20220204 19:12
5. Find the fair value gap in that leg. Step down 5 → 4 → 3 → 2 → 1 minute and stop at the first chart that shows a usable gap. 20220218 37:49 20220511a 36:11
6. Check premium/discount. Fib the displacement leg. A short must come from a gap at or above its 50% equilibrium; a long from a gap at or below it. He calls this "a hardline rule", though not a guarantee. 20220511a 38:37 20220517b 05:04
7. Enter on the retracement. Bearish limit just above candle three's high, at the near edge of the gap; a full fill or midpoint isn't required. 20220204 17:21 20220204 35:31
8. Stop. At least beyond the candle that creates the gap; one or two ticks above its high is enough. A wider stop beyond the swing high is allowed if you size down (micros). 20220511a 43:35 20220511a 43:47
9. Target. Split the dealing range at 50% and aim for liquidity in the opposite half: old lows or an opposing imbalance. Beginners can take a nearby, easy objective, often the near edge of an opposing gap. 20220122 35:27 20220204 37:46

His four-question check in episode 22: did it take a high out, did it break a low, was it displacement, did we trade back into it? 20220430 10:00

Two entry routes (episode 24): (a) the raid of old / relative equal highs followed by the short-term-low break; or (b) with a bearish bias, price trades up into an old fair value gap overhead, and its low becomes the boundary from which you wait for the same short-term-low break, displacement and a new gap. The old gap touch alone is not the entry. 20220506 35:58

In 2024 he re-taught it as Charter Model 13 ("the 2022 YouTube model"): daily narrative toward an opposing PD array → raid of an old high/low or relative equal highs/lows → rapid MSS through a recent 5-to-1-minute swing → FVG in that leg, ideally at/above equilibrium for shorts → limit at the near gap edge → opposing arrays, prior session/day extremes or gaps. 20240216a 03:03 20240216a 13:00

04Turtle soup

• His definition: a false break below an old low followed by a rally, or above an old high followed by a decline. He separates it from the Street Smarts pattern of Linda Raschke and Larry Connors: he credits them for the name but doesn't use their 20-day-high requirement; in his examples it works on one-minute candles too. 20220209 25:31 20250421 11:14
• Narrative decides which high matters. A stop hunt on its own doesn't tell you whether price will reverse. 20250421 11:14
• Turtle soup as a direct entry (buying below old lows, selling above old highs) is allowed, but he says it takes conviction, is "an entire paradigm shift" and probably isn't the first thing a learner should reach for. Study and journal old moves first. 20230622 19:29
• With OTE: in episode 38 he calls buying a low that is violated by a lower low "turtle soup", entered in the 62–79% optimal trade entry zone of the selected leg. 20220607 42:44
• Deferred turtle soup (2025): the raid has already happened (e.g. buy-side taken before 09:30 with a bearish MSS); instead of selling the raid itself, he sells the later retracement into a clean 2-minute SIBI (bearish FVG), stop above its first candle, adding near its midpoint (consequent encroachment) and holding toward sell-side without partials. 20250121 01:23 20250121 02:30 20250121 11:25
• Deferred entry with a rejection block (2025 review): after the 09:30 raid rejects from the midpoint of a 5-minute premium wick, he enters by market order as price leaves an existing inversion FVG and reaches a one-minute rejection-block reference. A named variant, not the novice sequence. 20250421 09:35
• Within the 2022 model the turtle soup is the raid in step 3: running the stops above highs (below lows) that then fails. The novice model does not enter at the raid; it waits for the displacement and gap. 20220122 27:55

05Fair value gaps, displacement and premium/discount

• Fair value gap boundaries (three candles): bearish gap from candle one's low down to candle three's high; bullish gap from candle one's high up to candle three's low, with candle two spanning the interval. No suitable gap in the leg means no entry on that chart. 20220204 11:31 20220204 16:42 20220204 22:38
• Displacement is conspicuously energetic delivery. He gives no numeric threshold. Even a small drop with a gap may just continue to another high. 20220202 18:12 20220202 20:33
• Close requirement evolves: in episode 3 a bullish breach need not close beyond the level; in episode 6 a close is first a preference, then stated more strongly. 20220126 13:47 20220204 19:12 20220204 23:33
• An intraday MSS is a leg, not a lasting reversal. It can be reversed the same day, and a break only matters for this entry when it follows the raid. 20220126 02:21 20220126 06:56
• Which range to measure: the expansion in the intended trade direction; with a two-stage advance, the most recent push. During urgent weekly delivery he accepts a shallow parent retracement. 20220524a 15:37 20220526 03:08 20220520a 05:30
• Picking the low that matters: wait for the meaningful (e.g. 15-minute) low to break, not minor breaks inside chop. At an old-low return he requires an FVG, not just broken support. 20220520a 04:04 20220520a 10:30
• Candle bodies respecting the gap: "the bulk of the volume" inside the FVG with extra wick action beyond it is expected and "forgiving for developing students". 20220614 02:07
• Gap retests: a revisit of the lower gap is tolerated but not a traversal; a local wick through an entry reference can be acceptable while bodies and the deeper stop hold. No blanket full-fill invalidation rule. 20220126 46:03 20220216 25:11
• Two gaps: with two bearish gaps, enter the lower and expect a stab into the upper; plan the stop to weather it. 20220430 22:37 A parent 15-minute gap sets the minimum return; smaller gaps refine it. 20220408 33:41

06Time windows

All times New York (ET).

• In a bearish bias, expect 08:30–09:30 to run higher to set up shorts; the short can form in that hour, or that leg just builds the framework for a later setup. 20220511a 34:43
• Lunch profiles: if bullish and lunch consolidates, the lunch lows are usually swept before the afternoon continuation; wait for that raid. A retracing lunch can instead sweep the new short-term low during lunch. 20220517a 01:16 20220607 20:21
• After a big overnight index move (02:00–05:00), don't chase; avoid the choppy morning and wait past lunch for the morning/lunch liquidity to be swept (indices only). 20220202 09:49 20220216 12:37
• News days: NFP Fridays are for observation, not speculation; the day before a Fed chair speech is usually quiet and small-ranged; on FOMC days sit still until 14:00 and wait the first 15–30 minutes after the release. 20220603 01:42 20220517b 03:11 20220726 01:15
• Asia: he teaches New York because you can see what London did; the pattern works in London, less often in Asia. Asia-only traders: yen pairs, NZD, AUD on 1–5 minute charts. 20220511a 45:44 20220511a 46:03

07Bias and draw on liquidity

• Weekly expansion toward a draw. On the weekend, expect the week to expand toward old highs/lows or imbalances; daily swings and imbalances then show the draw. A long needs anticipated expansion toward a premium array, not a weekly close above the open. 20220122 13:01 20220622 08:49 20220827b 14:04
• Bias persists but can need revising. Opposite candles and losses happen; a market consolidating around equilibrium makes bias unclear. Then look for smaller intraday legs and more evidence. 20220209 02:23 20220209 07:35
• Order of liquidity: in his bearish example, running buy-side first while the prior low is still intact fits the bias; taking the low first and then rallying "to me is not bearish". 20220511a 28:36
• Premium → discount. In a bearish bias the market goes up to a premium to run old highs, then seeks sell-side below. 20220511a 29:05
• The draw doesn't have to be reached for the trade to pay; participate in the expansion toward it. A nearby pool (e.g. the previous day's low) can be the practical target while the larger draw stays distant. 20220514 02:00 20220408 16:49
• When a daily objective is paid, the immediate bias can flip for a retracement while the broader view stays. 20220226 01:39
• SMT divergence ("smart money technique"): e.g. NQ makes a lower low while ES refuses. It confirms an existing bias; on its own it isn't enough, and it can disappear when the markets re-synchronise. 20220517b 03:51 20220209 24:45 20220526 07:04
• Seasonal tendency: late April into May indices tend to be weak, "not all the time"; by itself it means little, but with his concepts it's "a road map". 20220511a 11:09
• Don't pick tops and bottoms against the bias; trade the middle of the move. 20220511a 22:20

08Entries, stops and targets

• Entry: limit at the near edge of the gap; midpoint/full fill not required. 20220204 17:21 If you miss the ideal fill, a close-proximity entry near the intended gap is fine. 20220517b 07:01 Don't chase once the next low has been taken: slippage and risk grow. 20220122 43:47
• Opening-range proximity allowance: for a bearish entry, project the open-to-initial-high distance below the open and don't chase beyond it, "I don't care how good it looks later in the day". 20220218 01:00:13
• Stops: beyond the gap-creating candle (candle one or two according to risk); one or two ticks above its high is enough; a wider swing-high stop with micros if needed. 20220204 17:34 20220511a 43:35 A tighter stop above a breaker's down-close candle is a qualified refinement, not a rule for every gap. 20220218 40:26
• Targets: the opposite half of the dealing range; beginners take the nearby easy objective (often the near edge of an opposing gap); an internal-liquidity partial can come before the external old lows. 20220122 35:27 20220204 41:00
• Standard deviation projections: when no enclosing range gives a target, he projects a −1 extension of a prior swing and calls it "standard deviation" (a range projection, not a statistical measure). A body-based variant uses the highest/lowest candle opens/closes. 20220211 08:50 20220402 08:11
• Forex exits: front-run the objective by 3–5 pips (10 for very new traders). 20220406 20:25
• Five-point framework (for his son Caleb, early learning): a clear draw, an 08:30 or 09:30 opportunity, raid / low break / FVG return, exit at five points; later develop into partial at five and hold toward the pool. Five points a day is not promised. 20220610 43:24 20220610 55:27

09Trade management

• Don't strangle the trade. You can't trail tight right after entry; hold with a measure of risk open. Move the stop only after a larger structure shift (a new low taken). 20220511a 42:40 20220511a 44:46
• Keep the original stop through the first retracement; trail after the significant low is removed. 20220204 44:55
• Structural trailing: after newer down-close support is overtaken, trail below that candle's low, leaving room for a valid pullback into it. 20220226 24:57
• Systematic version (episode 41): at about 50% of the distance to target move the stop part of the way toward entry; at 75% move it to break-even. Partials (e.g. 15–20 points) can be customised. 20220624 45:39
• Reversal warning while in a trade: repeated sell-side pools taken without progress and a break of the candle expected to cap price; he scaled out before the remainder stopped. 20220610 01:01:30
• Pyramiding (optional): decreasing adds, three → two → one micros, at later qualifying entries toward the same target. 20220226 32:17
• Trade count: he mentions a maximum of four (two AM, two PM) from another series, not a quota; some days give only the opening opportunity. 20220402 17:22

10Risk and position sizing

• Learners: under 1% per trade, ideally 0.5% or 0.25%. His personal 3.5%/4.5% examples are separate. 20220209 04:44 20220422 15:25
• Size from the actual stop distance. Episode 41: a 9-point stop on a $10,000 account at 1% doesn't fit one ES mini ($50/pt) but fits two micros ($5/pt), risking $90 before costs. Nine points is not a universal stop. 20220624 18:49 20220624 22:07
• Drawdown ladder: after a loss, halve risk (1% → 0.5% → 0.25%, his floor); return to full risk after recovering half the loss. Model 13 states the same from 2% down. 20220624 31:17 20240216a 07:36
• Micros if a proper stop scares you; if you can't weather that, you're under-capitalised. 20220511a 43:47 20220511a 44:18
• Stops can slip in violent NQ moves; discount-broker margin doesn't define prudent exposure. 20220128 04:42 20220218 44:01

11Variants and exceptions

He shows several entries that skip a step of the novice model. Keep them as named exceptions, not as permission for any gap trade.

• Advanced entry before the MSS: a bearish FVG inside an anticipated hourly order block, given a daily draw and protected higher highs. A breach of the protected intermediate high cancels it. 20220225 36:43 20220225 41:49
• Opening raid after the gap forms: bullish shift and FVG first → the 09:30 raid below a new low → recovery into the same gap → long. Buying the raid itself is high risk. 20220317 01:23 20220317 02:57
• Continuation entries: later low-break/FVG entries in the same morning without a new high raid each time; a later entry toward the same daily draw after missing the open. 20220402 22:37 20220518 03:07
• Afternoon variants: after 13:30 with a bullish daily, a direct buy of a small swing-low raid, or a sudden displacement/FVG return. 20220202 31:54 20220202 36:24
• Heavy one-sided days: if price never rallies above the midnight/08:30 opens, the ideal model is denied; joining the move via FVGs is possible but "not scalable" with the public model. 20220427 29:01
• Counter-trend: contrarians can frame the teaching as a counter-trend model, but the 08:30–09:30 with-bias version is "the highest probability". 20220514 13:45
• Cross-market entry: 8 Feb 2022 he timed an NQ long from ES's raid/MSS/FVG while NQ itself showed no taught gap. Intermarket application, not a hidden NQ gap. 20220209 16:19 20220209 20:46
• Bearish breaker: high raid → intervening low break → return to the down-close candle; without the bearish narrative it is "an aimless guess". 20220610 06:07
• Daily-range trades (e.g. episode 38) are different from the scalping model, though its entry criteria can be used within them. 20220607 26:05

12The "Ends" fixed-rule plan

A 2022 case study for covering one monthly bill, with fixed mechanics. 20220730 23:47

• Goal: start with the smallest unavoidable monthly expense; keep your job while learning; illustrative $1,000 pre-tax from a $25,000 account. Not evidence of anyone's income. 20220806 07:01 20220827b 03:05
• Fixed trade: one ES contract, no pyramiding, 4-point (16-tick) stop, whole exit at 5.25 points (21 ticks), no partials, stop not moved. 20220827b 11:53 20220907c 03:47
• Setup: 5-minute sell-side raid → displacement up → FVG in that leg → buy limit at its high; refine 5 → 1 minute to find a gap that fits the 4-point stop, otherwise pass; don't chase. 20220827b 16:40
• Window and news: 09:30–11:30 and 13:30–15:30, no entries outside; plan from medium/high-impact news and stalk only after the release. 20220827b 13:03 20220827b 14:55
• Raid references and premium: previous week/day/session extremes; the FVG must be at or above the displacement leg's equilibrium for shorts. 20220907c 05:34
• Wider gaps and recovery: for a 7.5-point gap use its midpoint (CE) with the 4-point stop; after a stop-out with the idea intact, retest entry once, and a second loss ends the week. 20220907c 34:00 20220907c 31:53
• Readiness: four to six (part 3) or six (part 4) profitable demo months; a year of learning before leaving a job (part 2). 20220827b 22:32 20220907c 39:56 20220806 21:39

13Worked examples

All are hindsight reviews or his paper/demo trades unless stated; results are claims.

• ES, Tue 10 May 2022 (short, hindsight): relative equal highs at 08:30 → 09:30 hits Friday's low (rebalancing Monday's drop) → displacement leg on 5m → no 4m/3m gap → 2m gap at or above 4044.5 equilibrium (ASR?) → stop above the gap-creating candle → partial at a short-term low, then the previous day's low. 20220511a 26:54 20220511a 36:28 20220511a 48:37
• NQ, Fri 13 May 2022 (counter-trend long, paper): 09:30 takes the London low → rally → lunch high at 12:10 → 13:30 seeking → 2m FVG below equilibrium ~14:00 → long; exit errors on his phone. 20220514 04:53 20220514 09:32
• ES, Mon 16 May 2022 (long, paper): sell stops run, short-term shift, close-proximity entry near the 1m FVG, ES/NQ SMT at the 10:00 low, full exit at the target. 20220517b 05:29 20220517b 09:54
• NQ, Tue 17 May 2022 (PM long, paper): lunch lows swept into a 1m imbalance → long → 15:00 run to the 12,553 relative equal highs. 20220517a 01:16 20220517a 05:11
• ES/NQ, 14 Jun 2022 (short, hindsight): 08:30 rally into buy-side → 09:30 break of sell-side / MSS → FVG in premium above the 09:30 and 08:30 opens → previous day's low. 20220614 01:09 20220614 02:56
• ES/NQ, 28 Jun 2022 (short, hindsight): Judas swing at 09:30 → short-term low broken with displacement → FVG return, "that's your model" → relative equal lows. 20220628 01:15 20220628 02:30
• Deferred turtle soup, NQ 21 Jan 2025: pre-09:30 buy-side raid with bearish MSS → 2m SIBI limit, adds near CE, held to sell-side without partials. 20250121 00:11

14How he says to learn it

• Start with the 41 episodes, in order, and spend weeks and months going back through charts; the material also works in forex. 20230622 01:33:04 20230622 54:46 20220511a 07:18
• Study plan: about three months of daily backtesting, then two or three months of forward testing: "six months with just what I've taught". 20220511a 56:40
• Write the plan before the trade: trigger, stop, risk, target, management. 20220226 06:35
• Journal: log each day, then on the weekend review the week for the repeating patterns; record distance, duration, heat, context and no-trade conditions, and keep hindsight annotations labelled as hindsight. 20220218 01:02:37 20220218 01:01:57
• Positive self-talk in backtest journals: annotate old moves as if you'd foreseen them; he says rereading builds "pseudo-experience" (his claim about how it works). 20220514 16:43
• Pause and look first: in his videos, pause and find the pattern before he reveals it. 20220511a 25:26

15Contradictions, changes and unknowns

• Opening references: midnight, 08:30 and 09:30 opens are all used as references in different lessons; he does not reconcile them into one rule. 20220222b 07:23 20220511a 33:11 20220430 09:38
• First timeframe vs cleanest gap: episode 10 says stop at the first chart that shows a usable gap; in 2025 he says use the cleanest inefficiency on 5-to-1-minute charts. 20220218 37:49 20250121 08:26
• Model 13 stop wording: detailed bearish explanation uses candle one's high with zero buffer, while the rule sheet says "low of premium high". 20240216a 05:56
• Turtle soup variants (deferred, rejection-block, old-high gap entries) are different trades; no single mechanical turtle-soup rule is given. 20250421 09:35 20250514 01:50
• Asia: episode 5 excludes an Asian-range strategy for indices; episodes 8 and 10 say the model can occur in Asia. 20220202 01:23 20220218 26:16
• Not specified anywhere so far: a numeric displacement threshold, a complete mechanical daily-bias procedure, and exact chart anchors in many examples.
• Numbers from captions: several prices and account figures are misheard or arithmetically inconsistent in the captions (e.g. episode 10's slippage example, episode 41's 2.25% vs 2.55%); they're marked in the notes and not repaired here. 20220218 44:48 20220624 25:23
• Results: the $100k → $354k account (May 2022) and similar figures are paper/demo claims. 20220514 21:05 20220517b 13:08

16Glossary

Trade review checklist

A review aid for the 2022-model workflow. Decide which variant you are trading and write your plan first; the sources contain exceptions. Checking these boxes records your review—it does not validate a setup or predict its outcome.

Review each condition against your chart and written plan.

Source library

799 downloaded videos; 65 with full-transcript notes (2022 model core: 65/77 · Models & series: 0/298 · Reviews & commentary: 0/424). The guide draws only on noted videos. Tier C (daily reviews, commentary, tape reading) is searched for turtle-soup / 2022-model mentions rather than noted in full.

124 uploads have no captions and are not used. Per-video notes and the written guide are in the project folder.